Getting cooler but fire danger remains elevated in Northern California

A very welcome cooling trend is on the way, but stronger winds will keep fire danger elevated through the end of the week.

Posted: Aug 2, 2018 6:38 AM

The modest but welcome cooling trend will continue for your Thursday forecast, but fire danger will increase heading into the end of the week. The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning from 2pm until 8pm tonight for portions of Modoc and Lassen Counties, and a Fire Weather Watch from this evening through Saturday evening for portions of Shasta County and Tehama County. Low humidity and gusty winds will be the biggest concern for fire danger during that time frame.

Temperatures are starting out in the 60's to 70's in the valley this morning, and in the 40's to 50's in the mountains. Skies will be mostly sunny as far as clouds are concerned, but smoke will continue to leave the region with hazy skies. Air quality will continue to range from the Moderate to Unhealthy range through the day. Winds are mostly expected to be out of the South to 10mph this afternoon, but gusts to 15mph will also be possible this afternoon. Humidity will likely fall back into the 15 to 30 percent range later today, and could struggle to recover tonight with North winds picking back up. High temperatures are projected to end up in the 95 to 100 degree range in the valley, while mountain areas top out in the 80's to 90's later today.

A big shift in the winds will be a concern for firefighters this evening. Sustained winds of 10 to 15mph out of the North will be possible in areas around the Carr Fire, with gusts up to 25mph. That could end up pushing the fire Southward again tonight into tomorrow. Humidity and winds will be a concern again on Friday, but temperatures will continue to drop. Mid to high 90's are projected for the valley on Friday, and then low to mid 90's look likely for your weekend.

The latest models are now showing another warming trend returning next week. Valley areas are currently projected to end up back in the mid to high 90's on Monday, and will then soar above the century mark on Tuesday into Wednesday. The big cooling trend that was projected in previous model runs does not look as likely now. We will continue to monitor the data to let you know if any other big changes are on the way in your extended forecast.

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