Feb 5, 2015 9:08 PM by Kris Kuyper
Clouds thickened today around the North State, but the rain stayed near the North Coast and Trinity/Siskiyou counties. Look for the rain to spill inland tomorrow, along with gusty south winds!
Our Atmospheric River remains near the coast, but additional surges of moisture in the Pacific will force it inland late tonight and tomorrow. The rain may not even be that heavy in the morning, but by the afternoon models are indicating heavy rain across the North State, lasting into Friday night. Surface low pressure moving into Oregon will tighten the pressure gradient (difference) across northern California, which will give us 40 to 45 mph south wind gusts Friday in the Valley as well! All of this moisture is from the subtropics (a true Pineapple Express), so there is no cold air with this storm... snow levels will stay above 6000'. Look for 1" to 3" of rain in the Valley Friday alone, with higher amounts in the mountains.
The steady rain will turn to showers late Friday night, which will last into Saturday afternoon. Models are starting to pick up on individual waves now that the storm is very close, and there looks to be one riding in late Saturday afternoon and evening. It won't last long, but it should temporarily pick the rain right back up! The rain should turn to off & on showers yet again after Midnight Saturday.
Sunday will start with showers, but our next big storm that we've been tracking should arrive in the afternoon and last into Sunday night. While not quite as big as Friday's storm, it's still pretty healthy, and should deliver 1" to 2" of rain for the Valley, with higher amounts in the mountains. South winds could gust 30 to 35 mph, and snow levels will again remain high.
Upper level low pressure moves inland on Monday. While not loaded with moisture, it's more unstable than anything else, and could spark a few afternoon thunderstorms in the Valley on Monday.
All the moisture moves east finally by Tuesday, and a breezy north wind will set up... about 10 to 25 mph. Look for sunshine on Tuesday to last through the rest of the week, with slowly warming temperatures. The north winds will slowly diminish through the week, but it may take some time.
Until then... get ready for a wet weekend!